Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 June 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 13/0752Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 069 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 008/008-008/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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