Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 10/1727Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 10/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
10/0254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 074 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 007/008-012/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
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