Viewing archive of Friday, 6 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 06 2245 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (07 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 06/0404Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
06/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
06/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 074 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 073/075/075 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 010/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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