Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 02/2028Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
02/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/1037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7837 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Sep, 05
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 086 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 085/082/080 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 008/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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