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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 19/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 077
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 078/080/080
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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