Viewing archive of Monday, 6 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0622Z from Region 2902 (N13W89). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (07 Dec) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 05/2324Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 080 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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