Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0719Z from Region 2898 (S24, L=236). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (06 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 05/1718Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 083 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |