Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
28/0306Z from Region 2996 (N25W39). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (29 Apr, 30 Apr) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(01 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 28/1913Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 28/0620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 405 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 132 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 125/115/110 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 014/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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