Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1057Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul,
07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 04/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (08
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 115 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 018/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 017/025-012/014-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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