Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0129Z from Region 3055 (S18E60). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jul,
09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 07/1342Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 07/1328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 07/1342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet
levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 121 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 128/130/130 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 014/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 012/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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