Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/1055Z from Region 3078 (S24W47). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 18/1254Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 18/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 18/0522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (19 Aug), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (21 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 117 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 022/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 021/030-018/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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