Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
17/1345Z from Region 3078 (S20W34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 17/1841Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 17/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 17/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6038 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (20 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 123 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 020/037 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 039/056-022/030-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 75% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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