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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/0111Z from Region 3060 (N14W20). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 21/1658Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 21/1631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 21/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Jul), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 122 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 120/118/118 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 017/020-029/040-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 79% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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