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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1622Z from Region 3112 (N20E76). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct,
03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 30/0556Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 30/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (01 Oct), active to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 137 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 032/050-028/038-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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