Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 November 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 31/2227Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1783 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 128
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  108/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  011/010-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm45%25%40%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (677.1 km/sec.)

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