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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov,
03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 31/2227Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1783 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 128 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 108/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 011/010-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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