Viewing archive of Monday, 28 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (29 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 684 km/s at 28/1723Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 28/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 28/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 107 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 012/015-013/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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