Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/1358Z from Region 3151 (S16W88). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 29/1532Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 28/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 29/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1709 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 108 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 018/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 018/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 016/022-017/025-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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