Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 26/2243Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 27/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
27/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2404 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 107 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 009/010-012/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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