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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0609Z from Region 3150 (N21W71). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 487 km/s at 20/0242Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
20/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/1629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 119 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 020/026-012/015-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 60% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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