Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
11/0103Z from Region 3245 (S23W31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 11/0830Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 157 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 009/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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