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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/0719Z from Region 3253 (S30W01). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 12/0856Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/0639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 726 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 150 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 005/005-007/008-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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