Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
08/0146Z from Region 3272 (S21E50). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr,
11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 08/0505Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2525 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 136 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 006/005-006/005-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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