Viewing archive of Friday, 5 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0801Z from Region 3296 (N16E20). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 05/1413Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
05/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5024 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 May), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (07 May) and active to major storm levels on day
three (08 May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 162 Predicted 06 May-08 May 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 05 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 013/015-018/026-030/046
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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