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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 05/2227Z from Region 3288. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 06/1037Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/0401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (07 May), active to severe storm levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 May 152
  Predicted   07 May-09 May 155/155/160
  90 Day Mean        06 May 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 May  022/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  024/032-036/055-019/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%40%
Minor storm40%35%25%
Major-severe storm15%40%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%65%45%

All times in UTC

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