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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 09/0608Z from Region 3272 (S21E38). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 08/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1873 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Apr, 11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 140
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 168

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  008/008-009/010-010/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%30%45%

All times in UTC

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