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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/0608Z from Region 3272 (S21E38). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr,
12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 08/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1873 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Apr, 11 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 140 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 008/008-009/010-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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