Viewing archive of Monday, 13 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1556Z from Region 3226 (N11E33). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 469 km/s at 12/2248Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5446 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Feb) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 189 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 008/010-013/016-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna
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