Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/1212Z from Region 3213 (N28W92). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 13/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1751 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 180 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 178/178/178 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 011/015-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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