Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/0523Z from Region 3213 (N28W0*). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (16 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 14/2306Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 15/0810Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 15/1914Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (16 Feb, 17
Feb) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 174 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 175/172/170 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 024/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 018/018-014/022-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 70% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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