Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/1012Z from Region 3196 (N12E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 Jan,
21 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 19/0756Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/0922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 219 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 013/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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