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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 23/1446Z from Region 3171 (N24E12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 22/2324Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/1922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/1230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M10%10%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 128
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 132/132/135
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  017/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  014/016-013/015-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%30%25%

All times in UTC

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