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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
23/1446Z from Region 3171 (N24E12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec,
25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 22/2324Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 23/1922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 23/1230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25
Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 128 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 132/132/135 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 014/016-013/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |