Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/2219Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 22/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
22/1731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 131 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/010-009/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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