Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/0621Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 20/2108Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 21/0748Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
21/0609Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (24 Dec).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 139 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 325Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 8Filaments and prominences 595Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1747
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |