Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1406Z from Region 3169 (N21E36). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 20/1517Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at
20/0744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (23
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 146 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 140/135/125 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 017/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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