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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 16/0923Z from Region 3182 (S17W75). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 16/0315Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/2254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 546 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 228
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 226/226/226
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 143

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  017/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/008-007/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm01%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%30%50%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

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