Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0032Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb,
19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 16/2021Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 16/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 16/0819Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three
(19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 163 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 023/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 022/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 014/022-023/030-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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