Viewing archive of Friday, 17 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
17/2016Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 17/0300Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 17/0036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/0155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 343 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 160/155/145 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 021/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 023/030-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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