Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
18/1200Z from Region 3226 (N10W33). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490 km/s at 17/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/1222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Feb, 21 Feb)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Feb) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 167 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 160/150/140 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 012/020-017/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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