Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
19/0817Z from Region 3226 (N10W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 19/1454Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Feb) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (21 Feb, 22
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 169 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 160/150/140 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 020/025-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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