Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 March 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/1255Z from Region 3245 (S24W98). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 135
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 135/140/138
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  019/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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