Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1255Z from Region 3245 (S24W98). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Mar,
18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 15/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 15/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 135 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 135/140/138 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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