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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 March 2023

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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/2226Z from Region 3254 (S24W28). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (16 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 15/0435Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 15/0502Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 15/0435Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21 pfu at 15/0425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M05%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton25%01%01%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 136
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 138/145/142
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  019/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  021/025-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm30%05%01%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm70%25%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-62nT)

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