Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/1016Z from Region 3272 (S21E10). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 10/2101Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 143 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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