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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2323Z from Region 3296 (N16W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 08/1552Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 07/2345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 08/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10
May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 May). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on day one (09 May), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (10 May) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (11 May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 95% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 172 Predicted 09 May-11 May 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 08 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 017/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 013/014-012/018-024/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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