Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
20/2247Z from Region 3192 (N16W15). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 21/0908Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/0716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23
Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 209 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 205/200/205 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 011/012-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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