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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/2242Z from Region 3323 (S07E45). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 03/1108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0533Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 319 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M35%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 165
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  008/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  011/015-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

All times in UTC

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