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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 05/0017Z from Region 3320 (N10W21). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/0820Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet levels on day two (07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
Class M30%25%25%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jun 169
  Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 170/170/160
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  007/008-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%20%

All times in UTC

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