Viewing archive of Monday, 5 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
05/0017Z from Region 3320 (N10W21). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/0820Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
05/1931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/0825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet levels on
day two (07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 169 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 170/170/160 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 007/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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