Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
20/1949Z from Region 3373 (N08W15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul,
23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 20/1750Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 20/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
20/1635Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14 pfu at 19/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1856 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (21 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (22 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 184 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 015/020-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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