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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 22/2344Z from Region 3340 (N22E07). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 23/1805Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1448 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 170
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  008/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%15%

All times in UTC

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