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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1217Z from Region 3337 (N21W51). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/1925Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 24/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
24/2029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1075 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jun), quiet levels on
day two (26 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 161 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/008-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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