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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
25/1218Z from Region 3341 (S16W05). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 25/0656Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 24/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 24/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 155 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 007/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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