Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 October 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/0623Z from Region 3473 (N16E44). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 28/1833Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/0653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 28/1508Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 287 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 128
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 129/133/137
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  011/015-016/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm10%30%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%65%55%

All times in UTC

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